Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Winter is Coming - Natural Gas in Limelight
By Century Financial in 'Investment Insights'
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Winter Energy Crises
Europe is bracing for a tough winter as an energy crisis that’s been around for years leaves the continent relying on the whimsy of the weather. The environmental policy has also pushed some countries to shut their coal and nuclear fleets, reducing the number of power plants that could serve as back-up in times of shortages. Additionally, China jumped back into the LNG spot market this week, with one of its top importers releasing a large purchase tender for a strip of cargoes through March.
Dependence on US
Energy demand is rising from the U.S. to Europe and Asia as economies recoup from the global pandemic, boosting industrial activity and fueling concerns about inflation. Prices are so high in Europe that two major fertilizer producers announced they were shutting plants or curtailing production in the region. Moreover, as Chinese utilities in Beijing become locked in bidding wars for shipments of the super-chilled fuel, the price to produce electricity and heat homes will surge. The international spike in demand will lead to increased natural gas cargoes from the US, as it is the second-largest natural gas exporter globally.
Why Natural Gas?
Several factors came together to drain natural gas supplies: An extended cold winter in 2020 in both the US and Europe; low gas prices and general economic uncertainty during the pandemic induced many drillers to stop production. Moreover, Hurricane Ida in August temporarily knocked out gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico; and the below-average electricity generation from hydropower dams in the western US and European wind farms forced grid operators to fill the gap with gas.
The chart below demonstrates the spike in the price of Natural Gas for the past thirty years.
The price of natural gas is currently at $4.866 as of 22nd Sept 2021, the recent crunch in supplies has allowed the prices to climb over resistance levels of $4.627 which has been capping prices since 2010.
In addition to long term spike in demand for natural gas over the winter months, historically, October has proven to be a stellar month for the commodity in terms of seasonality.
The table below depicts seasonality of Natural Gas for the past 20 years.
The commodity has average returns of 8.96% for the span of 20 years and has a hit ratio of 75%. Empirically, max gains have been over 45%, while max losses are floored at 12.5% for the commodity in the month of October. Pent up demand in the winter and bottlenecks on the supply of the commodity is forecasted to further boost the prices of Natural Gas.
How to Play the Natural Gas Shortage?
Strategy 1: Long a Natural Gas Nov 2021 Futures Contract – This will enable to capitalize on the Oct 2021 run of Natural Gas. (Margins have been calculated as per CMC platform)
Nov '21 Futures Contract | |
1 contract = 10,000 Units | |
Price per Unit | $4.8 |
Units | $10,000 |
Amount | $48,000 |
Amount | $4,800 |
Strategy 2: Long a Naked Call Option – Another process to enter play the natural gas rally can be through options. Going long on a call option will enable unlimited upside with lower margins but at a premium.
Long Call: Nov '21 Futures | |
1 contract = 10,000 Units | |
Strike Price | $4.8 |
Premium Outlay per Unit | $0.427 |
Total Outlay | $4,270 |
Strategy 3: Bull Call Spread – A bull spread strategy using call options will allow for upside will a lower premium outlay.
Bull Call Spread: Nov '21 Futures | |
1 contract = 10,000 Units | |
Long Call (At the Money) | |
Strike | $4.8 |
Premium Outlay per Unit | $0.427 |
Short Call (Out of the Money) | |
Strike | $5.6 |
Premium Received per Unit | $0.174 |
Net Premium Outlay Per Unit | $2,530 |
Total Outlay | $2,530 |
Although the total outlay for the third strategy is approximately half of the second strategy, the gains are capped at $5.6 (which may act as a resistance for Natural Gas)
The table below provides a comparison of returns for strategy 2 and 3.
Scenarios on 26th Oct 2021: | Bull Call Spread | Long Call @ $4.8 |
Price | Returns | |
$4.40 | -5.21% | -8.75% |
$4.60 | -5.21% | -8.75% |
$4.80 | -5.21% | -8.75% |
$5 | -1.04% | -4.58% |
$5.20 | 3.13% | -0.42% |
$5.40 | 7.29% | 3.75% |
$5.60 | 11.46% | 7.92% |
$5.80 | 11.46% | 12.08% |
$6 | 11.46% | 16.25% |
Payoff for Bull Call Spread
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies
Data Source: Bloomberg
Data & Prices as of: 22/09/2021
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
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