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Risks & Assumptions
Evergreen CAC 40
The CAC 40 is the most popular measure of stocks on the Euronext Paris and is made up of the largest 40 companies listed in France screened by market capitalization, trading activity, size of balance sheet and liquidity. The multinational reach of the companies listed on the CAC 40 makes it the most popular European index for foreign investors. The major sectors dominating the index are Luxury Brands, Industrial, Consumer Staples and Financial. Additionally, the CAC index does not truly reflect the French economy, instead the index is dominated by the presence of global companies and reflects sentiments across the globe.
The valuation multiples of luxury brands have remained relatively impressive compared to others sub sectors. And while several countries in the EU zone are considering lockdown environments, key demand regions across the globe have no intentions to reimpose restrictions. This can further buoy the luxury basket present in CAC.
As shown in the chart below, on technical levels, the CAC 40 index has broken a 30 year high of 6647, which is a bullish indication.
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 24th Nov 2021
IBEX 35: The Laggard
The Spanish Index is formulated of the Utilities sector, succeeded by the Financial and Consumer Discretionary sector. While the banking sector may logically witness some support financially due to rising yields, but the valuation multiples of this sector remain low as it qualifies as a defensive industry. Additionally, utilities comprise of over 22% of the index, and the sector remains at a disadvantage in Spain. A package of government measures imposed in Spain to reduce the impact of surging energy prices on electricity bills were mostly at the expense of the country's integrated utilities, leaving them at a competitive disadvantage to European peers. Thus, the financials of the companies under this sub sector do not showcase stellar growth rates in the previous quarters. These overall impacts the performance of the index to a great extent.
Fundamental Factors
1. Earnings Growth
CAC 40 witnessed a 58% growth in earnings from 2019, whereas IBEX 35 only grew by approximately 37%. The relatively fast paced growth in earnings for CAC 40 is a fundamental factor contributing to CAC’s relative outperformance.
Earnings Growth (2019 - 2021*) | ||
CAC 40 | IBEX 35 | |
2019 | 274.72 | 456.6 |
2021* | 434.40 | 624.34 |
Growth | 58.12% | 36.74% |
*2021 numbers have been forecasted for the year of 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 24th Nov 2021
2. Net Debt/EBITDA
A lower ratio indicates that the index is not excessively indebted, and the member companies have substantial profit margins. CAC has a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.49 which is much lower than that of IBEX (6.9), indicating a better profitability profile for CAC 40.
Net Debt/EBITDA | ||
CAC 40 | IBEX 35 | |
2021* | 4.49 | 6.90 |
*2021 numbers have been forecasted for the year of 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 24th Nov 2021
3. Return on Equity
The forecast for the annual return on equity for the two indices showcases a clear winner. As per the table below indicates how well the member company's management deploys shareholder capital. CAC 40 is a better bet as per the ratio.
Return on Equity | ||
CAC 40 | IBEX 35 | |
2021* | 12.76 | 9.58 |
*2021 numbers have been forecasted for the year of 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 24th Nov 2021
Top 10 Companies along with ICB Super Sector
IBEX 35
Name | Weight | ICB Super Sector Name |
Iberdrola SA | 13.51% | Utilities |
Industria de Diseno Textil SA | 12.19% | Retail |
Banco Santander SA | 11.15% | Banks |
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA | 7.42% | Banks |
Cellnex Telecom SA | 7.40% | Telecommunications |
Amadeus IT Group SA | 5.51% | Technology |
Telefonica SA | 4.79% | Telecommunications |
Ferrovial SA | 4.11% | Construction and Materials |
CaixaBank SA | 4.10% | Banks |
Aena SME SA | 3.46% | Industrial Goods and Services |
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 24th Nov 2021
CAC 40
Name | Weight* | ICB Super Sector Name |
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE | 25.71% | Consumer Products and Services |
L'Oreal SA | 16.28% | Consumer Products and Services |
Hermes International | 12.12% | Consumer Products and Services |
TotalEnergies SE | 8.03% | Energy |
Sanofi | 7.92% | Health Care |
Schneider Electric SE | 6.45% | Industrial Goods and Services |
Kering SA | 6.25% | Retail |
Airbus SE | 6.15% | Industrial Goods and Services |
EssilorLuxottica SA | 4.10% | Health Care |
BNP Paribas SA | 5.22% | Banks |
*Weightage for CAC companies has been calculated as per their market cap, as the actual weightage is unavailable
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 24th Nov 2021
A Consistently Rising Ratio
The ratio between the two indices is at a 25 year high of 0.797, which indicates that over the years CAC has continued to outperform the Spanish Index due to its globally renowned constituents with relatively higher valuation multiples. The forecast too remains optimistic for CAC 40 as several economies are reopening and luxury stocks are here to remain in fashion.
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 24th Nov 2021
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies
Data Source: Bloomberg
Data as of: 24/11/2021
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
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