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Best Quarter in 10 Years
In 2011, Cotton prices skyrocketed as demand for textiles rebounded from a global financial crisis, while India — a major cotton exporter — was restricting shipments to help its domestic partners.
However, the scenario is different this time; the run-up in Cotton prices has stemmed from several reasons. Last year December onwards, the Trump administration blocked companies in the U.S. from importing cotton and cotton products that originated in China's Western Xinjiang region over concerns that it was being produced using forced labor by the Uyghur ethnic group. Additionally, the new U.S. leadership has now forced Chinese companies to purchase cotton from the U.S., manufacture cotton in China, and then sell it back to the U.S.
Moreover, the recent droughts and heatwaves in the U.S. have wiped out cotton crops across the country, the biggest exporter of the commodity in the world. India, the largest producer of cotton, experienced deficient monsoon rains threatening to hurt the country's cotton output.
Last year, India exported 7.7 million bales of cotton to neighboring countries due to the pandemic surplus, but the outlook is different this year. In further news from India, the country's demand for the crop has increased substantially, raising concerns about the country's export surplus. As per industrial forecasts, India's cotton exports could fall by 36% in 2021/22 from a year ago, as domestic demand has been rising amid limited supplies after carry-forward stocks nearly halved from a year ago.
Historical Price Technicals
The chart below depicts that cotton prices have broken a 10-year resistance and are crawling high. The prices have more room to run and have very little esistance based on a 15-year time frame. There are no immediate Cotton supplies in the U.S. or India to meet export demands. Thus, if the demand continues to crawl from Asian countries, the prices can creep higher. (Prices in the chart below are quoted in $ cents)
Source: Bloomberg
Date: October 12th 2021
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
As per the latest WASDE report issued by USDA dated September 10th, 2021, the world 2021/22 cotton ending stocks were 540,000 bales lower for the month as a 1.4-million-bale world consumption increase spread over 2021/22. Consumption forecasted was higher for Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, and several smaller countries. 100,000 bales also increased Turkey's consumption for 2021/22
Seasonality
The table below shows that the 15-year average seasonality for cotton in October, November, and December appears strong
Source: Bloomberg
Date: October 12th 2021
Correlation With Energy
Cotton has an all-time correlation of 56% with both: Crude Oil and Heating Oil.
The energy crunch this season has led to developing oil-exporting countries to rethink their road to progress. As retail prices of petrol and diesel shoot up in India, the policymakers are encouraging the production of bio CNG and bio-LNG using the stubble of crops like soybean, wheat, paddy, cotton, etc., to reduce the dependence on imports of imports crude oil and fuel gases. It can be forecasted that oil-producing crops may receive a bump due to the surge in oil and gas prices.
How to Take Advantage of the Surge?
Investors may choose to go long on the commodity while simultaneously hedging for downside risk using options. Protective Put: Long Futures + Long Put
Protective Put: Nov '21 Futures
1 contract = 50,000 Units | |
Long Futures Contract - Nov '21 | |
Price | $1.12 |
Long Put | |
Strike | $1.10 |
Premium Paid per Unit | $0.0461 |
Potential Max Loss on 50k Units | $3,305 |
Potential Max profit | Unlimited |
Source: IBKR
Date: October 12th, 2021
Payoff
Commodity Price | Payoff |
0.91 | -5.9% |
0.95 | -5.9% |
0.99 | -5.9% |
1.03 | -5.9% |
1.07 | -5.9% |
1.11 | -5.0% |
1.15 | -1.4% |
1.19 | 2.1% |
1.23 | 5.7% |
1.27 | 9.3% |
1.31 | 1.31 |
1.35 | 16.4% |
Source: Computed based on Option Payoff
Date: October 12th, 2021
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies
Data Source: Bloomberg
Data as of: 13/10/2021
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
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