Thursday, November 04, 2021
Corn - Wheat Spread Strategy
By Century Financial in 'Investment Insights'
* Trading in financial markets carries risk and can result in loss of capital.
* This performance is only observed with historical backtests and not traded by the company.
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Risks & Assumptions
Strategy Rationale:
The yellow grain is known to use more fertilizer than other crops like soybeans and wheat. The skyrocketing fertilizer prices could lead U.S. corn profits to drop by about a quarter, potentially motivating farmers to shift millions of acres to plant other crops that could reduce the supply of corn in the market—boosting the prices.
Demand for ethanol has reached record levels amid growing energy crunch that has led to rampant production. Ethanol is a domestically produced alternative fuel most commonly made from corn – a rampant increase in ethanol production to meet the growing demand provides further catalyst for corn futures. Wheat and corn are often used interchangeably for livestock feeding. A surge in Wheat prices would prompt cattle owners to further increase the use of Corn relative to Wheat in the cattle feed mix. Additionally, harvest has slowdown across the Midwest leaving end users scrambling for supplies.
Spread between Wheat and Corn
Date: 02nd November 2021
Source: Bloomberg
The strategy behind long Corn & short Wheat trade is to take advantage of the fact that the spread may decrease. By the graph, the spread between Corn and Wheat is at its highest point excluding the outlier during the period of 2007-08.
How to Take the Trade:
Position | Instrument | No of Units | Current Price when spread is 229 cents | Exposure | Price when spread spread drops to 180 cents | Potential Profit when spread decreases to 180 cents | Price when spread drops to 131 cents | Potential Profit when spread decreases to 130 cents | Price when spread increases to 278 cents | Potential Loss when spread increases to 278 cents |
Long | Corn Dec 2021 | 10,000 | 572.4 | $57,238.00 | 550.0 | $(2,238.00) | 569.0 | $(338.0) | 552 | $(2,038.00) |
Short | Wheat Mar 2022 | 10,000 | 802.0 | $80,200.00 | 730.0 | $7,200.00 | 700.0 | $10,200.00 | 830 | $(2,800.00) |
Total | $137,438.00 | $4,962.00 | $9,862.00 | $(4,838.00) | ||||||
3.6% | 7.2% | -3.5% |
*Prices in the 6th,8th and 10th column are based on hypothetical scenarios
*Corn and Wheat prices are trading in cents
The Corn Dec 2021 contract is currently priced at 572.4 cents while the Wheat Mar 2022 contract is priced at 802 cents implying a spread of 229 cents. Long Corn contract and short Wheat contract could result in profitable trade when the spread between the two contracts decreases further irrespective of price movement on the upside or downside. On the other hand, it could result in potential losses, if the spread increases further. For example, by going long 10,000 units of Corn Dec 2021 and simultaneously short 10,000 units of Wheat Mar 2022, it would result in a potential profit of ~7% if the spread were to decrease to 130 cents. On the other hand, if the spread were to increase to 278 cents it would result in a potential loss of 3.5%.
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies
Data Source: Bloomberg
Data as of: 04/11/2021
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
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