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Wednesday, March 19, 2025

A Deep Dive into Crypto Mining Firms

By Century Financial in 'Investment Insights'

A Deep Dive into Crypto Mining Firms
A Deep Dive into Crypto Mining Firms

From a fundamental perspective, Trump's re-election is the main reason for a bullish environment for cryptos. Donald Trump made cryptocurrencies a major part of his political campaign. He vowed to launch a strategic national crypto stockpile if elected president and prevent the federal government from liquidating its bitcoin holdings. He also accepted cryptocurrency donations in his presidential campaign and pledged to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world. His commitment to deregulating the crypto markets and the Republican National Committee’s pro-crypto stance highlight a shift toward acceptance of the asset. This has become even more apparent with Gary Gensler, perceived as anti-crypto, stepping down as SEC head on 20 January 2025. After Trump’s victory, crypto markets soured. Over the past week, markets showed a risk-off sentiment, leading to a broader pullback in risky assets. Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, its lowest level since mid-November, reversing gains from the post-election rally following Donald Trump's victory. This decline could present an attractive entry point for crypto-mining stocks at current levels.

 

 

The CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF serves as a benchmark for crypto mining stocks, tracking the broader crypto mining universe. Over the past 6 months, IREN Ltd, Cipher Mining Inc, and Bitdeer Technologies Group have all outperformed the ETF, highlighting their relative strength in the sector despite recent volatility.


The table shows that crypto mining stocks have a higher beta than the IBIT ETF, with an average beta of 2.96 compared to IBIT ETF’s 1.68. This indicates that crypto mining stocks tend to be more volatile and could potentially outperform Bitcoin during a broader crypto rally.


The table presents the hash rates and total cost per Bitcoin for the three crypto mining companies reported in the latest financial quarter.

Analyst rating
Buy
11
Hold
1
Sell
0
Name IREN Ltd
ICB Subsector Name Computer Services
Ticker IREN
Last Price $7.21
52-Week Low $4.15
52-Week High $15.92
Market Capitalization ($ Billion) $1.43
Analyst Target Price $21.64
Beta 2.97
Shares Outstanding (Mn) 198.14
Avg 30 Day Volume (Mn) 15.17
Forward P/S 1.75
Forward EV/Sales 1.19

Source: Bloomberg
Date: 17th March 2025
*Last Price: 14th March 2025

Price Chart
IREN Ltd

IREN is an Australian-based data centre owner and operator focused on sustainable Bitcoin mining. IREN runs bitcoin mining data centres and has a market value of $1.7 billion. Its main source of income comes from building and managing these mining sites, bringing in $282 million in revenue in 2024. The company is growing fast, with expected annual revenue growth of 189% in 2025. This growth is driven by IREN’s focus on expanding its digital infrastructure. To stay ahead, IREN invests heavily in research and development, aiming to boost innovation, increase profits, and reduce the volatility in its stock price.

IREN’s total revenue more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, while its cost per bitcoin dropped significantly. The company currently operates at 31 EH/s, mostly from its 750 MW Childress site. Bitcoin production and the average hash rate rose 65% and 85% QoQ, respectively, with gross mining margins reaching 75%, making IREN one of the most efficient miners in the industry.

In late January, IREN committed to using the entire 750 MW at Childress for mining and raised its FY25 hash rate target to 57 EH/s. The company ended 2024 with $427 million in cash, including funds from its $440 million convertible bond issued in December.

IREN’s strong revenue growth, improving efficiency, and strategic expansion plans position it well in the Bitcoin mining industry. With solid financial fundamentals and industry-leading margins, the company is well-prepared to scale operations and navigate the evolving crypto landscape in 2025.

Analyst rating
Buy
10
Hold
1
Sell
0
Name Cipher Mining Inc
ICB Subsector Name Software
Ticker CIFR
Last Price $3.04
52-Week Low $2.66
52-Week High $7.99
Market Capitalization ($ Billion) $1.10
Analyst Target Price $7.69
Beta 2.87
Shares Outstanding (Mn) 361.53
Avg 30 Day Volume (Mn) 16.00
Forward P/S 3.51
Forward EV/Sales 3.68

Source: Bloomberg
Date: 17th March 2025
*Last Price: 14th March 2025

Price Chart
Cipher

Cipher is poised for substantial growth in its bitcoin mining operations, targeting a 150% hash rate expansion in the second half of 2025. The company has also recently secured up to 1.5 GW of additional power capacity. At the end of Q3 2024, Cipher had 9.3 EH/s online and aims to increase this to 13.5 EH/s by the end of 2024, with a target of 35 EH/s by the end of 2025.

In Q3 2024, operating costs were tightly controlled, with cash SG&A rising only $1 million to $14 million. Cipher also issued about 19 million new shares, increasing its total shares outstanding by 6%. As of September, the company held $40 million in cash and 1,512 bitcoins, valued at roughly $106 million.

Cipher has successfully upgraded its Odessa fleet, boosting its total self-mining hash rate to approximately 13.5 EH/s. The company is also nearing completion of Phase I of the Black Pearl project, which is on track to go live in the second quarter of this year.

In addition, Cipher acquired Stingray, a data centre site in West Texas with 100 MW of front-of-the-meter capacity and expanded its Barber Lake site by purchasing 337 more acres of land. The company has also entered a 60-day exclusivity period with Priority Power to negotiate the development of a 500 MW HPC data centre next to its existing site. With strategic acquisitions, power agreements, and fleet upgrades, Cipher is positioning itself for long-term dominance in the mining sector.

Analyst rating
Buy
12
Hold
0
Sell
0
Name Bitdeer Technologies Group
ICB Subsector Name Software
Ticker BTDR
Last Price $10.35
52-Week Low $5.23
52-Week High $26.99
Market Capitalization ($ Billion) $1.99
Analyst Target Price $22.76
Beta 3.19
Shares Outstanding (Mn) 144.10
Avg 30 Day Volume (Mn) 6.29
Forward P/S 3.42
Forward EV/Sales 3.14

Source: Bloomberg
Date: 17th March 2025
*Last Price: 14th March 2025

Price Chart
Bitdeer Technologies Group

Bitdeer is a bitcoin mining company that specializes in high-performance computing and mining machine manufacturing. By the end of 2024, Bitdeer had 21.6 EH under management, with 8.5 EH dedicated to its own mining operations. Bitdeer’s energy assets now exceed 2.6 GW, following its acquisition of Foxcreek in Alberta. More than 1 GW of additional capacity is set to go live in 2025, strengthening Bitdeer’s ability to support its own mining operations and meet the growing demand for AI and HPC data centers. This expansion positions Bitdeer as a key player in addressing the power shortage for AI data centers.

The company, headquartered in Singapore, has data centers in the U.S., Norway, and Bhutan. In early 2024, it launched its first bitcoin mining machine, SEALMINER A1. Bitdeer invested $52.8 million in the tapeout process for SEAL03. The company has big plans for its SEALMINER hardware. It aims to increase its mining power by 32 EH/s in 2025 and plans to mass-produce the SEALMINER A1 and A2 models. Last quarter, Bitdeer spent $325 million in cash on its operations. A large portion of this went to chipmaker TSMC, as the company paid $190.6 million to produce SEAL02 chips.

Moreover, Bitdeer AI, a division of Bitdeer Technologies Group, provides cloud services for AI developers, enabling them to train and scale workloads using advanced AI infrastructure powered by NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD with H100 GPUs, DDN Storage, and InfiniBand Networks.

Bitdeer’s aggressive expansion in both bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure underscores its ambition. As demand for both bitcoin mining and AI-driven computing continues to grow, with a diverse revenue stream, Bitdeer is well-positioned to perform in both bitcoin bull and bear markets.

Risks and Assumptions related to Back-tested trading strategies
The risks and assumptions listed here are not intended to be an exhaustive summary of all the risks and assumptions involved.
The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to the use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
The back-tested strategy might be at risk of data dredging, which is the behavior of testing multiple hypotheses at one time, resulting in picking the data that best supports your main hypothesis.
Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and losses could be significant in the event of leverage.
Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.
A trading strategy that performs well on multiple datasets from one market (e.g., forex) might not perform as well in another market (e.g., stocks).
The strategy may not depict accuracy in terms of spread changes due to the spread-widening events.

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