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Century Financial Consultancy

محفظة استثمارية متنوعة

انقر على المعيار المحدد على المؤشر للتعرف على استراتيجيات التداول المتحفظة، المعتدلة والمغامرة.

توزيع الأصول
10%
الأسهم
10%
المؤشرات
10%
العملات الأجنبية
20%
السلع
50%
السندات
ملاحظة: هذا لأغراض التوضيح فقط وليس هناك أي التزام بقبول توزيع الأصول التي توفرها هذه الأداة. مزيج المحفظة ليس نصيحة استثمارية ولا اقتراحًا بشأن تخصيص الأصول ليتم اعتماده من قبل المستثمرين.
أسواق تداول
الوصف
الاتجاه
نطاق التداول
equites
Costco
Trend
Range $792 - $910
Costco is a wholesale retailer selling discounted goods via warehouses and online means. Costco's business model is a well-thought-out strategic piece that has been at the centre of Costco's enormous revenues. Costco operates via a membership-based model; that is to shop at Costco one needs to be a member, or else one will have to purchase Costco cash cards. As these membership fees come at a fixed price that is to be paid per period, Costco generates endless cashflow irrespective of the market sentiment. Moreover, since customers already hold the membership, so they are motivated to keep buying from Costco, creating customer retention. Simply put, low product costs at the company keep customers happy and get them to renew their memberships, year in and year out. As long as the company can keep executing the successful membership-focused plan that has gotten it this far, the future looks like it remains bright.
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indeces
SMI Index
Trend
Range CHF11,487.34 - CHF12,567.88
Throughout the year, the Swiss Market Index (SMI) has demonstrated remarkable resilience, expanding by 8% despite prevailing market fragilities across the European region. This robust performance is primarily attributable to the SMI's substantial exposure to conservative sectors such as healthcare and consumer goods, which exhibit enduring demand irrespective of economic fluctuations. Moreover, Swiss inflation in May declined to 1.4% and is expected to average around the same level throughout 2024. This resulted in two 25 bps rate cuts by the SNB. The Swiss bank anticipates economic growth of around 1% this year and around 1.5% in 2025 as unemployment is expected to slightly increase and production capacity may have a small decline. However, in the medium term, activity is expected to improve gradually with strong demand from abroad. The SMI has a long-term bullish trend and strong support at the trendline on the monthly chart.
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forex
GBP/USD
Trend
Range 1.22 - 1.29
Technically, the pair has pulled back after hitting trendline resistance, forming a descending symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart, supporting a bearish outlook. Fundamentally, the bearish stance is primarily driven by expectations of an interest rate cut and upcoming UK elections. The UK's May CPI hit 2%, matching the central bank's target for the first time since 2021, leading to increased bets against the pound. Currently, there's a 62.4% chance of a BoE rate cut. If Labor wins the July 4 election, the new left-of-center government must maintain investor confidence while addressing economic challenges. With UK public debt-to-GDP at a 63-year high and reduced FDI, Labor might need to raise taxes or borrow more, potentially weakening the pound. In the US, the Fed seeks clear evidence of declining inflation before cutting rates. As of now, there's a 10% chance of a rate cut in July and 66.5% in August meetings.
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commodities
Gold
Trend
Range $2,225 - $2,450
After reaching a record high of $2,450 in May and three consecutive monthly gains this year, gold experienced no significant movement in June. This can be attributed to the slowly pivoting, stronger-than-expected economic data and China's halt in central bank purchases. China reported no gold purchases in May, bringing its 18-month buying streak to an end. The economic data for June, though mixed, indicated a slowing economy, cooling inflation, hawkish Fed commentary, and a possible start to the rate cut cycle later this year. Additionally, the strength of the dollar acted as a headwind, rising about 1.2% in June. Looking ahead, July is a data-heavy month, with investors eagerly awaiting two critical events - the CPI inflation data and the Fed’s interest rate decision. Considering all and carrying expectations of previously sticky inflation cooling, the outlook for gold remains bullish.
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bonds
iShares Core
U.S. Aggregate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $93.16 - $102.42
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) seeks to mirror the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, acting as a broad indicator of the U.S. investment-grade bond market. With diversification across more than 8,000 bonds, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities, this fund offers extensive exposure to the entire U.S. bond market. Emphasizing cost effciency and strong liquidity, the fund manages assets exceeding $100 billion and maintains a low expense ratio of 0.03%, which is below the industry average. Additionally, it boasts a 12-month yield of 3.43%. Designed for investors looking for diversified exposure to the U.S. bond market at a minimal cost, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF is an attractive option, offering potential for both income generation and capital appreciation, despite the inherent risks related to interest rates and credit.
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iShares iBoxx
$ Investment
Grade Corporate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $102.95 - $113.20
The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) seeks to emulate the performance of a comprehensive index comprising U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds. Its main objective is to provide investors with exposure to the high-quality segment of the corporate bond market, ensuring diversification across various sectors, maturity periods, and credit ratings. With a low expense ratio of just 0.14% and strong liquidity, the fund is an appealing option for investors looking for both income and stability in the fixed-income sector. Featuring a 12-month dividend yield of 4.33%, the fund also maintains moderate interest rate risk and low credit risk, with most of its holdings having ratings of A or higher from major rating agencies. Designed for investors seeking a reliable investment in the investment-grade corporate bond market with ample diversification and liquidity, the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF presents a compelling choice.
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iShares 20+
Year Treasury
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $89.31 - $98.19
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is an exchange-traded fund that aims to replicate the performance of long-term U.S. government bonds. By focusing on bonds with more than 20 years of maturity remaining, the fund is highly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates and inflation expectations. Investors often turn to TLT in anticipation of benefiting from changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly during transitions from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing. These transitions typically increase demand for long-term bonds, driving up their prices and lowering yields, which benefits TLT as it reflects the rising value of its underlying assets. With a low expense ratio of 0.15% and a 12-month dividend yield of 3.80%, coupled with a notable history of dividend growth, TLT is an attractive investment option for those anticipating a shift in the Fed's policy in 2024, potentially leading to the appreciation of long-duration bonds.
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Vanguard
Short-Term
Corporate Bond
Index
Trend
Range $73.82 - $81.16
The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index (VCSH) is a mutual fund strategically invested in high-quality corporate bonds with maturities ranging from one to five years. Its primary goal is to provide investors with a sustainable and moderate level of current income while minimizing interest rate risk. The fund tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Corporate Bond Index, which measures the returns of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate securities issued by industrial, utility, and financial companies, aiming to replicate its performance. With a remarkably low expense ratio of 0.04%, below the category average, the fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark, delivering one-year annualized returns of 5.92% and a 12-month dividend yield of 3.51%. The fund is well-diversified across sectors, with significant exposures to financials, consumer non-cyclical, communications, and technology. It is designed for investors seeking income generation from their portfolio while prioritizing risk management and liquidity.
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Data Source: Bloomberg
Date: 2nd July, 2024

Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst

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The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone.
Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
DISCLAIMER: Century Financial Consultancy LLC (“CFC”) is Limited Liability Company incorporated under the Laws of UAE and is duly licensed and regulated by the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority of UAE (SCA). This information is for illustrative proposes only and must not be construed to be an advice to invest or otherwise in any investment or financial product. CFC does not guarantee as to adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information or data contained herein and under no circumstances whatsoever none of such information or data be construed as an advice or trading strategy or recommendation to deal (Buy/Sell) in any investment or financial product. CFC is not responsible or liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Please refer to the disclaimer section of the website for full disclosure of the terms and conditions.
Risks & Assumptions
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The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
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Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
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Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
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The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
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Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and loses could significant in the event of leverage.
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Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
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The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
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The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
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Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
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The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.