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لا تقدم سنشري للاستشارات والتحليل المالي ش.ذ.م.م (سنشري) خدمات استشارية استثمارية أو خدمات إدارة المحافظ ولا تضمن العوائد الاستثمارية. كما أننا لا نقبل ولا ندفع بعملة مشفرة أو عملة رقمية. موقعنا الإلكتروني الرسمي هو www.century.ae. احذر من الشركات المحتالة أو المواقع الإلكترونية التي تتظاهر بأنها شركة سنشري. لسنا مسؤولين عن أي خسائر تنجم عن استخدام مواقع إلكترونية أو كيانات مزيفة. ينطوي التداول في الأسواق المالية على مخاطر خسارة كبيرة قد تفوق الودائع وربما لا يناسب جميع المستثمرين. قبل أن تبدأ، يُرجى التأكد من فهمك التام للمخاطر ذات الصلة.
توزيع الأصول
10%
الأسهم10%
المؤشرات10%
العملات الأجنبية20%
السلع50%
السنداتملاحظة: هذا لأغراض التوضيح فقط وليس هناك أي التزام بقبول توزيع الأصول التي توفرها هذه الأداة. مزيج المحفظة ليس نصيحة استثمارية ولا اقتراحًا بشأن تخصيص الأصول ليتم اعتماده من قبل المستثمرين.
أسواق تداول
الوصف
الاتجاه
نطاق التداول
Amazon
Trend
Range $143.50 - $168.60
Investor optimism toward Amazon stems from the persistent resilience seen in consumer behavior. Both Visa and Mastercard affirmed in recent earnings calls that consumer spending has remained robust, defying inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates. This consumer resilience notably benefits Amazon, fostering increased activity in e-commerce and retail spending on its platform, which accounts for 40% of online sales. The company has experienced accelerated revenue gains over the past three quarters, indicating an existing upward trajectory. Moreover, with the holiday season in play, December witnessed a surge in consumer spending for last-minute gifts and discounted items. According to MasterCard, US retail sales climbed by 3.1% from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. Notably, while clothing sales rose by 2.4%, there was a 2% decline in jewelry sales and a roughly 0.4% dip in electronics. Online sales particularly soared by 6.3% compared to the previous year, while in-person spending registered a modest 2.2% increase.
Readmoreless Sweden 30
Trend
Range SEK 2,305 to SEK 2,590
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index rose 17% so far in December 2023, marking its best performance since 2021. In December alone, the index advanced 7%, while its gains for the quarter stand at 11%. The index touched a 52-week high of SEK 2,403.18 on 29th December 2023. Interest rates in Sweden are believed to have peaked at 4% in September, suggesting the Riksbank is likely done tightening. Housing starts fell throughout the first nine months of 2023 to their lowest in over 10 years and areexpected to decline further next year. The unemployment rate is also expected to reach a peak of 8.6%. As a result, headline inflation is expected to follow a bumpy but downward trajectory. Analysts project inflation to reach the Riksbank’s target rate of 2% by mid-2024 and decline further over the second half of 2024. By virtue of these factors, market participants anticipate an imminent pivot to rate cuts – an eventuality that would ultimately support both households and corporates in 2024.
Readmoreless AUD/USD
Trend
Range 0.6573 - 0.7155
The AUD/USD outlook appears influenced by a weakening US Dollar, marked by the US Dollar Index's recent dip to a five-month low. Dovish sentiments, propelled by expectations of Fed monetary easing, have been pivotal in this decline. The softening US PCE Price Index further fueled speculations of an impending easing cycle, intensifying bets on a Q1 2024 Fed rate cut. Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) stance is less clear, with mixed speculations on the timing of an RBA rate cut. China's industrial profit data holds significance, potentially shaping investor sentiment and influencing the trajectory of the Australian dollar. The RBA's concerns about household spending and wage dynamics underscore uncertainty, suggesting that an uptrend in wage growth could prompt the RBA to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Short-term trends for the Australian dollar may pivot on economic indicators from both China and the US, with a potential Fed rate cut and robust economic activity in China acting as catalysts for a stronger Aussie dollar.
Readmoreless Gold
Trend
Range $2013.08 - $2154.25
The month ahead holds a positive outlook for gold, driven by factors such as inflation hedging and the anticipation of central bank rate cuts. Major central banks, including the ECB, BoE, and Fed, are expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, possibly starting in March. The historical correlation between gold prices and expectations of rate cuts enhances the potential for significant gains in the precious metal, setting a positive tone for the beginning of the year. Additionally, the weakened dollar index, hitting its lowest point in five months and poised for its first annual drop since 2020, enhances gold's allure for international buyers. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East further contribute to the favorable environment, suggesting a bullish trajectory for gold in the coming month.
Readmoreless iShares Core
U.S. Aggregate
Bond ETF
U.S. Aggregate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $96.35 - $106.28
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) is designed to mirror the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, a comprehensive gauge of the U.S. investment-grade bond market. With an investment in over 8,000 bonds spanning government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities, the fund seeks to grant investors broad access to the entire U.S. bond market while ensuring cost-effectiveness and high liquidity. Currently holding assets exceeding $100 billion, the fund boasts a low expense ratio of 0.03%, below the average in its category. Additionally, it presents a 12-month yield of 3.14%. Geared towards investors seeking diversified and economical exposure to the U.S. bond market, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF is an attractive option, offering potential for both income generation and capital growth, despite some inherent interest rate and credit risk.
Readmoreless iShares iBoxx $
Investment
Grade Corporate
Bond ETF
Investment
Grade Corporate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $107.42 - $118.50
The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is an exchange-traded fund designed to mirror the performance of a broad index of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds. Its objective is to provide investors with exposure to the higher-quality segment of the corporate bond market, ensuring diversification across various sectors, maturities, and credit ratings. With a modest expense ratio of 0.14% and high liquidity, the fund stands out as an appealing choice for investors seeking both income and stability within the fixed-income realm. Demonstrating a year-to-date performance of 9% and a 12-month dividend of 4.01%, the fund also maintains a moderate interest rate risk and a low credit risk, given that the majority of its holdings carry ratings of A or higher from major rating agencies. Tailored for investors in search of a core holding in the investment-grade corporate bond market that is diversified and liquid, the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF presents a compelling option.
Readmoreless iShares iBoxx $
High Yield
Corporate
Bond ETF
High Yield
Corporate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $75.33 - $83.09
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is an exchange-traded fund tracking the performance of a diverse index of U.S. dollar-denominated high-yield corporate bonds. Designed to provide investors with exposure to the lucrative income potential and diversification benefits of the high-yield bond market, HYG invests in over 1,000 bonds across various sectors and credit ratings, boasting an average maturity of 4.6 years. With a compelling 12-month dividend yield of 5.72% and a low expenseratio of 0.49%, the fund appeals to income-seeking investors. Despite its moderate risk profile, including higher credit risk and volatility inherent in high-yield bonds, HYG offers the potential for enhanced returns and exhibits a lower correlation with other fixed-income and equity markets. This characteristic can contribute to an improved risk-return profile, making HYG an attractive option for investors seeking a balanced and diversified portfolio strategy.
ReadmorelessVanguard Short-
Term Corporate
Bond Index
Term Corporate
Bond Index
Trend
Range $74.93 - $82.65
The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index is a mutual fund strategically investing in high-quality corporate bonds with maturities ranging from one to five years. Its primary goal is to deliver a sustainable and moderate level of current income while minimizing interest rate risk. The fund mirrors the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Corporate Bond Index, assessing the returns of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate securities issued by industrial, utility, and financial companies. With an impressively low expense ratio of 0.04%, below the category average, the fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark, boasting year-to-date, one-year, and five-year annualized returns of 5.92%, 5.56%, and 2.34%, respectively. Notably diversified across sectors, with major exposures in financials, consumer non-cyclical, communications, and technology, the fund is tailored for investors seeking income generation from their portfolio without compromising on risk management or liquidity.
Readmoreless Data Source: Bloomberg
Date: 2nd Jan, 2024
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone.
Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
DISCLAIMER: Century Financial Consultancy LLC (“CFC”) is Limited Liability Company incorporated under the Laws of UAE and is duly licensed and regulated by the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority of UAE (SCA). This information is for illustrative proposes only and must not be construed to be an advice to invest or otherwise in any investment or financial product. CFC does not guarantee as to adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information or data contained herein and under no circumstances whatsoever none of such information or data be construed as an advice or trading strategy or recommendation to deal (Buy/Sell) in any investment or financial product. CFC is not responsible or liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Please refer to the disclaimer section of the website for full disclosure of the terms and conditions.
Risks & Assumptions
The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and loses could significant in the event of leverage.
Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.