* Trading in financial market carries risk and can result in loss of capital.
* This performance is only observed with historical backtests and not traded by the company.
The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading in financial markets and use of margin involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
Risks & Assumptions
Valuations are Tied to Interest Rates
In a nutshell, it all comes down to interest rates. Simply put, stock valuations are tied to interest rates. The higher interest rates go, the lower stock valuations go, and vice versa. For decades, interest rates were relatively high because inflation was relatively high, and to that end, stock valuations were relatively low.
But in 2008, the Fed cut interest rates to zero to save the U.S. economy from collapse. What followed was 14 years of ultralow inflation that allowed ultralow interest rates to stay in place - and powered stock valuations to historically elevated levels.
In 2022, however, the story has changed. Inflation is red-hot for the first time since before 2008, meaning that the era of ultralow interest rates is - for the first time - threatened by runaway inflation. That’s problematic for stocks because they are still valued if interest rates will remain lower for longer.
But this is not the case for 2022. The 5-and 30-year treasury yields have surged approximately 20% and 8%, respectively since the beginning of the year.
Fed’s Stance
The Fed has been contemplating draining liquidity from the markets since last year. And as per the FOMC minutes released in January 2022 for December 2021, the Fed rolled a curveball of shrinking the balance sheet instead of only deploying the conventional method of raising interest rates to curb inflation.
While the market has priced in rate hikes to a certain extent and short- and long-term treasury yields have been shooting high, further upside movement in yields may occur based on upcoming statements by the Fed chair and the forthcoming FOMC meetings.
Ever since the December 2021 FOMC minutes were released, the attention of market participants has shifted to what the true valuations of companies should be, adding a bearish tinge to companies that have been riding the bulls since 2020.
The Pair Trading Strategy involves going long on Russell 2000 and holding a short position in Nasdaq
The chart below depicts the ratio between Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq index:
The ratio between Russell 2000 and Nasdaq
Date: 24th Jan 2022
Source: Bloomberg
Currently, the ratio between the two indices is 0.1373 and is hovering around its 30-year low point of 0.1227. In the year 2000, when the ratio rebounded from its lows, small-cap continued to outperform Nasdaq for two years until the ratio reached 0.4392 levels.
The Nasdaq index is dominated by the technology sector, which is expected to bear majority of the brunt from rising interest rates. The technology-based companies are valued on bright growth prospects. Thus, they are anticipated to suffer the most from higher interest rates, as higher rates imply a lower present value of future cash flows.
On the contrary, the Russell 2000 includes companies from 11 different industries, with the most prevalent being healthcare, financials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and technology. Since a higher chunk of the index comprises companies from the healthcare and financial sector that are defensive by nature and are dividend-paying companies, the Russell 2000 index outperforms tech-heavy indices in times of rising interest rates.
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies
Data Source: Bloomberg
Data & Prices as of: 25/01/2022
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
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