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Monday, November 02, 2020

Orange Juice Seasonality Analysis November rally on the cards

تم إعداد هذا المنشور من قبل سنشري للاستشارات

Orange Juice Seasonality Analysis November...
Orange Juice Seasonality Analysis November rally on the cards?

*This performance is only observed with historical backtests and not traded by the company.

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Below is the heat map for Orange Juice over the last 10 years.

As can be seen in the image below, the month of November has been positive for the commodity in 8 out of the last 10 years. The commodity has provided an average return of 5.15% in the month of November with the maximum return being 15.73% and the maximum loss of 5.39%.

As a rule of thumb, orange trees do not grow well in regions with extended periods of cold weather. November is known to be a chilly season in the US, and the weather across America is blowing dry to cold, stressing crops and harvests. In anticipation of the winter freeze damaging the fruit and impacting the supply, prices often go up in the month of November. This price spike can reverse in the months ahead once the extent of freeze damage becomes clear.

Heat map for Orange Juice (Monthly returns over the last 10 years)

Its important to understand that the seasonal patterns and pricing tendencies described here can be affected by other fundamentals, such as weather and/or production issues in other importing or exporting countries etc. and past patterns may not always hold true in the future.

*Past performance is not indicative of and does not guarantee future results. Trading in markets may involve loss of capital.

Data Source: Bloomberg

Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst

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