Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Busting Three Myths About SPX 500
تم إعداد هذا المنشور من قبل سنشري للاستشارات
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* This performance is only observed with historical backtests and not traded by the company.
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What are the myths?
Let’s tackle each point one at a time:
Many market participants are worried about the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates for the first time in March 2022 since December 2015.
History suggests stocks could see more volatility after rate hikes, especially during the first three months, but this could be a function of the economy aging by the time hikes happen. An aging economy and bull market tend to see more significant moves. For example, the past seven cycles saw a correction in four of them during the next three months with an average loss of -4.2%. But Fed rate hikes by themselves don’t mean the bull market is approaching an end. Surprisingly, the previous seven cycles saw the S&P 500 Index higher 12 months after the first rate hike. Yes, some of those returns were muted, but by no means was this a bearish event for investors.
Performance of SPX 500 after the First Rate Hike
Date of First Rate Hike | Returns in Next Three Months (%) | Returns in Next Six Months (%) | Returns in Next Twelve Months (%) |
01/04/1987 | 19.1 | 20.9 | 1.5 |
11/05/1988 | 3.4 | 8.6 | 20.7 |
04/02/1994 | -5.9 | -2.5 | 2.4 |
25/03/1997 | 13.6 | 20.6 | 39.6 |
30/06/1999 | -7.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
30/06/2004 | -2.3 | 6.4 | 5.2 |
16/12/2015 | -1.1 | 0.1 | 9.1 |
Second, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen sharply to begin the year, causing many high-flying tech companies to plummet. But is this negative news for all stocks? Higher yields usually indicate that the economy is expanding rather than slowing. As a result, cyclical equities do better when yields rise, lifting the index- quite the opposite from what people commonly perceive
As shown in the table below, markets witnessed an extended period of a higher 10-year Treasury yield the past six times; SPX-500 also rose. Some of those periods saw well over 30% gains in the following 12 months. The surge in yields could support a higher trending bull market, much different from most think.
SPX 500 returns during a surge in 10-year yields (periods of gains over 100 basis points have been considered)
Rising Interest Rates Start Date | Rising Interest Rates End Date | Duration (Months) | Change in 10-Year Treasury Yield (%) | Gain/Loss for SPX 500 (%) |
26/12/1962 | 29/08/1966 | 44.7 | 1.7 | 18.3 |
16/03/1967 | 29/12/1969 | 34.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
23/03/1971 | 16/09/1975 | 54.6 | 3.2 | -18.1 |
30/12/1976 | 30/09/1981 | 57.8 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
04/05/1983 | 30/05/1984 | 13.1 | 3.9 | -7.9 |
29/08/1986 | 16/10/1987 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 11.8 |
15/10/1993 | 07/11/1994 | 12.9 | 2.9 | -1.4 |
19/01/1996 | 08/07/1996 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 6.7 |
05/10/1998 | 21/01/2000 | 15.8 | 2.6 | 45.8 |
13/06/2003 | 28/06/2006 | 37.0 | 2.1 | 26.0 |
30/12/2008 | 05/04/2010 | 15.4 | 1.9 | 33.3 |
24/07/2012 | 31/12/2013 | 17.5 | 1.6 | 38.1 |
08/07/2016 | 05/10/2018 | 27.3 | 1.9 | 35.5 |
09/03/2020 | 31/03/2021 | 12.9 | 1.2 | 44.6 |
Average | 25.9 | 2.9 | 17.3 |
Lastly, SPX 500 delivered a stellar return of 25% last year and is due for a correction. Well, data suggests otherwise - Years with greater than 25% return for SPX 500 are instead a good sign for the next year!
Just because stocks were up a great deal last year isn’t a reason to worry by itself. The truth is that significant annual gains are more likely to occur in larger bull markets, so there’s no need for investors to be concerned about a pullback based on what happened in 2021. The past seven times, the S&P 500 gained more than 25% in a year, saw the next year higher, with five of those years up double digits.
As shown in the table below, the S&P 500 is up roughly 12% on average and higher 86% of the time after gaining 25% the year before. There are many reasons to be concerned, but being bearish simply because stocks have rallied significantly, shouldn’t be one of them.
Year | SPX 500 Return | SPX 500 Next Year Return | ||||
1954 | 45.0 | 26.4 | ||||
1955 | 26.4 | 2.6 | ||||
1958 | 38.1 | 8.5 | ||||
1975 | 31.5 | 19.1 | ||||
1980 | 25.8 | -9.7 | ||||
1985 | 26.3 | 14.6 | ||||
1989 | 27.3 | -6.6 | ||||
1991 | 26.3 | 4.5 | ||||
1995 | 34.1 | 20.3 | ||||
1997 | 31.0 | 26.7 | ||||
1998 | 26.7 | 19.5 | ||||
2003 | 26.4 | 9.0 | ||||
2013 | 29.6 | 11.4 | ||||
2019 | 28.9 | 16.3 | ||||
2021 | 26.9 | ? | ||||
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There are many things to worry about, but in the end, if the economy is still humming along and earnings are still strong, then equities could continue their uptrend. However, investors should be aware that midterm years typically see the most significant intra-year pullback, more than 17% on average for the SPX 500. So investors should be open to some correction this year. But the good news is if you are willing to hold, the index is up more than 32% on average a year off those lows.
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies
Data Source: Bloomberg
Data as of : 19/01/2022
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
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