Will UAE petrol prices rise after Venezuela crisis? What drivers should expect next

Vijay Valecha, January 8, 2026, Gulf News

Dubai: UAE motorists are unlikely to see an immediate jump in petrol and diesel prices following the political upheaval in Venezuela, with analysts pointing to a well-supplied global oil market that is limiting the impact of geopolitical shocks at the pump.

While headlines around US military action in Venezuela briefly rattled oil markets, price movements have so far remained contained. Brent crude has hovered in a narrow $60 to $62 per barrel range this week, levels that historically do not translate into sharp changes in UAE fuel prices, which are reviewed monthly.

According to Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, geopolitics often creates short-term volatility rather than lasting price pressure. “During periods of geopolitical tension, oil typically shows a risk premium, but this is usually sentiment-driven and short-lived,” he said. “At the moment, global markets are already oversupplied, which is why traders are paying less attention to geopolitical headlines and more to surplus risks.”

Why the UAE pump price is insulated

Fuel prices in the UAE are not set in isolation. The pricing committee bases its monthly decision on global crude benchmarks, refined fuel prices, transport and distribution costs, and currency factors. An average of these inputs over the month determines retail prices.

Valecha noted that despite the disruption in Venezuela, price signals remain subdued. “Technically, Brent has been stable since Monday. That suggests no major impact on UAE fuel prices so far,” he said. “In fact, if geopolitical risks persist, the longer-term impact is more likely to be on the downside because the oil balance is skewed toward surplus.”

This helps explain why the sharp spikes seen in earlier geopolitical crises have not materialised this time. During previous flashpoints, oil prices jumped as much as 7% in early trading sessions. By contrast, WTI crude rose just under 2% on January 5 before erasing those gains the following day

According to recent announcements, Trump is expected to turn over 30–50 million barrels of crude to the U.S. for sale into global markets. While it will take time for Venezuela’s production to recover, releasing stored barrels and reducing the risk of shut-in wells could increase future output

Source

Gulf News