Russia-Ukraine War Three Years On: A Path To Peace Or A Boost For Putin?

Vijay Valecha, Khaleej Times, February 25, 2025

When US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day freeze on foreign aid on January 20, the move sent shockwaves through Kyiv. While Ukraine receives support from multiple countries, US assistance has been a cornerstone of its war efforts. A significant portion of this aid has been directed toward military equipment and humanitarian relief, making Washington’s backing critical to Ukraine’s resilience on the battlefield.

Saxo Bank said gold hovered near record highs at $2,935 an ounce due to geopolitical tensions, despite the US Federal Reserve’s rate stance. “Concerns grew as US President Donald Trump suggested pulling US support for Ukraine after Russia's 2022 invasion, urging Zelenskiy to negotiate with Russia swiftly,” it said.

US aid to Ukraine

Three years have passed since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine. Since then, the US has provided substantial financial aid to Kyiv—though the exact amount remains a point of contention.

In a post on Truth Social last week, US President Donald Trump claimed that the US has spent $350 billion on Ukraine and accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of misplacing half of it.

Trump’s skepticism toward Zelensky is not new. While he has repeatedly stated his desire to end the Russia-Ukraine war, his latest diplomatic moves suggest a different approach. On Tuesday, he sent a team to Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations with Russia over ending the war—but notably excluded Ukraine from the talks. He has also asserted that Russia holds the upper hand in peace negotiations, saying, “Russia has the cards” because it has “taken a lot of territory.”

Where does the aid go?

According to data from US Congressional Research Service (CRS) last month, the US Congress allocated nearly $174.2 billion in supplemental appropriations for Ukraine from 2022 to 2024 in response to Russia’s invasion—far below Trump’s claim of $350 billion.

Of this total, $37.8 billion has been earmarked for economic assistance through the Economic Support Fund and the Assistance for Europe, Eurasia, and Central Asia accounts. A portion of these funds has been designated for direct financial support to Ukraine’s central government budget. To date, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has obligated over $30 billion in such aid, administered through three World Bank mechanisms.

Data released by the US Department of State in January shows that the US has provided $65.9 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022. The report also highlighted contributions from nearly 50 allies and partner countries, which have supplied Kyiv with a wide range of military aid, including long-range multiple launch rocket systems, artillery systems, tanks, armored personnel carriers, anti-tank munitions, short-range air defense missiles, and lethal unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

While the total US aid for Ukraine stands at nearly $175 billion, only $106 billion has been directly allocated to the Ukrainian government, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in a September 2023 report. The remaining funds have primarily supported US operations related to the war, with a smaller portion directed to other affected countries in the region.

To ensure accountability, transparency, and efficiency, the Federal Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group is responsible for tracking and overseeing the allocation, distribution, and use of US funds provided to Ukraine.

US eyes Ukraine's critical minerals

In exchange for US aid, Trump has demanded $500 billion worth of natural resources from Ukraine, including titanium, lithium, and graphite. These critical minerals are essential for aerospace, defense, battery production, and high-tech manufacturing. Ukraine’s vast reserves could help reduce US reliance on imports from China and Russia.

"I (emphasize) the importance of the vital “Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal” between the United States and Ukraine, which we hope will be signed very soon! This deal, which is an “Economic Partnership,” will ensure the American people recoup the Tens of Billions of Dollars and Military Equipment sent to Ukraine, while also helping Ukraine’s economy grow as this Brutal and Savage War comes to an end," Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Monday.

Zelensky initially rejected the proposal, stating at a press conference that he would not agree to a deal that would burden future generations of Ukrainians. “I will not sign something that 10 generations of Ukrainians are going to pay later,” he said.

Despite his initial resistance, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna indicated a shift in stance. On Monday, she posted on X that negotiations on a minerals deal with the US were in their final stages, describing the discussions as “very constructive, with nearly all key details finalized.”


 

“In this messy negotiation, Ukraine might still emerge as the winner,” said Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at UAE’s Century Financial, in an interview with Forbes Middle East. He explained that with US military aid declining, Ukraine has ramped up its own weapons production and strengthened its alliances in Europe.


 

“As a result, Ukraine is now stronger than it was three years ago and is expected to keep fighting, with or without US help,”  Vijay Valecha added

What has Ukraine lost?

Despite Ukraine's resilience and significant international support, the conflict remains unpredictable, Valecha said, adding that “the conflict continues, with no end in sight.”

According to him, Russia now controls nearly one-fifth of Ukraine, and geopolitical tensions remain high.

Since the invasion on February 24, 2022, Russian forces have occupied approximately 20% of Ukraine, while the remaining 80% remains under Ukrainian sovereignty, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor.

Although Russia's frontline advances have slowed significantly in the past three months, ISW data shows that its troops are making small territorial gains at the cost of massive personnel losses.

Throughout the war, Russia has leveled Ukrainian cities as it occupied them, including Mariupol. However, many of Ukraine’s largest cities, such as Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, and Odesa, have avoided destruction and continue to function.

An emboldened Russia

According to Valecha Vijay Valecha , Trump’s actions and statements have added complexity to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but whether they will lead to Ukraine’s defeat remains uncertain. “Ukraine’s strong defense, support from countries like the UK and France, and shifting global politics will all play a role in shaping the outcome,” he explained.
 

According to Valecha, Trump’s actions and statements have added complexity to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but whether they will lead to Ukraine’s defeat remains uncertain. “Ukraine’s strong defense, support from countries like the UK and France, and shifting global politics will all play a role in shaping the outcome,” he explained.

However, the biggest loss in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be for the US itself, Valecha warned. He argued that Trump’s approach is weakening the US's global influence by attempting to align with Putin while unsettling its allies.

On Monday, Trump hinted at potential economic agreements with Russia. “I am in serious discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia concerning the ending of the War and also major economic development transactions with Russia,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Valecha cautions: “This could potentially inflict long-term damage on US power, escalate geopolitical tensions, and undermine global security,” he forecasted. The path to peace, he added, remains highly uncertain, with many evolving factors set to determine how the war unfolds in the coming months and years.

Is an endgame in sight?

Valecha Vijay Valecha noted that Trump’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict could still evolve, particularly since the US has yet to lift existing sanctions on Russia. This, he said, signals Washington’s continued hardline approach despite perceptions of a close relationship between Trump and Putin.
 

“Moreover, given Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, his harsh statements about Zelensky might not necessarily mean he is abandoning Ukraine,” Valecha Vijay Valecha explained. Instead, he suggested that Trump could be using pressure tactics to push Ukraine toward greater concessions in peace talks that favor the US or to accelerate negotiations rather than cutting support entirely.

During a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, Trump expressed optimism that Russia’s war in Ukraine was nearing an endgame. Macron, meanwhile, has proposed deploying European peacekeepers to Ukraine as part of a potential ceasefire agreement, signaling Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s stability even if US support wavers.

Source

Forbes Middle East