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Thursday, July 25, 2024
10-Year Treasury Bond Yield: What It Is and Why It Matters
تم إعداد هذا المنشور من قبل سنشري للاستشارات
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Ever wondered what the 10-year Treasury bond yield is and why it's such a big deal? Let's break it down in simple terms.
What is it?
Think of it as the interest rate the U.S. government agrees to pay when it borrows money for a decade. It's not just any interest rate—it's a benchmark that influences other interest rates and gives us a peek into what investors think about the economy.
Why is it important?
It sets the tone for other interest rates:The 10-year Treasury bond yield is like the trendsetter for various interest rates. When it goes up, borrowing costs typically rise, slowing down spending on homes, cars, and business expansions. Conversely, when it goes down, borrowing becomes cheaper, potentially boosting economic activity.
It's a health check for the economy:This yield indicates investor sentiment about future economic conditions. A rising yield usually means investors expect more robust economic growth and higher inflation, so they demand higher returns. A falling yield, on the other hand, signals that investors are seeking safety, which often points to economic uncertainty or anticipated slowdowns.
Current scenario:
Currently, the 10-year Treasury bond rate is at 4.32%, up from 3.77% in 2023 but still below the long-term average of 4.25%. This fluctuation tells us a lot about investor confidence and economic outlook.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)
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How do 10-year Treasury yields work?
The U.S. Treasury bond issues these bonds, known as T-notes, with a face value of $1,000 and pays interest every six months. Banks and financial companies buy them in auctions and then resell them in the secondary market, where the real action happens.
Here's a crucial point: the yield (or the effective interest rate) you get depends on the bond's market price. If you buy the bond for less than its face value, your yield is higher, and vice versa. Bond prices and yields move inversely—when one goes up, the other goes down. This dynamic is driven by market demand, which fluctuates based on economic conditions.
Why do people buy Treasuries?
U.S. Treasury bond securities are risk-free because they're backed by the government's promise to repay. Investors flock to these safe havens when the economy looks shaky, pushing prices up and yields down. Conversely, when the economy is booming, investors seek higher returns elsewhere, lowering demand for Treasuries and increasing yields.
The role of the FOMC
The FOMC, or Federal Open Market Committee, is a powerful group within the Federal Reserve System that plays a critical role in setting monetary policy for the U.S. The FOMC's decisions to raise or lower the target federal funds rate and other monetary policy tools influence interest rates throughout the U.S. economy. These actions affect borrowing costs, economic activity, and inflation.
The FOMC consists of voting members, including the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, John C. Williams, and a rotating group of other Reserve Bank presidents. Their primary responsibility is to set the target federal funds rate, which influences other short-term interest rates.
The Fed’s dual mandate aims for maximum employment and price stability. If the economy overheats or inflation rises, the FOMC might raise the rate, making borrowing more expensive and slowing economic activity.
How do the yield rates affect your investments?
In financial markets
The 10-year Treasury bond yield is used to value financial assets. It is commonly used as a discount rate in models that value future earnings and cash flows. When the yield is low, it can boost stock prices because the present value of future earnings is higher. A higher yield can lead to lower stock valuations as the cost of capital increases, making equities less attractive compared to the risk-free return on
In currency markets
Bond yields are an excellent indicator of a nation’s stock market strength, which increases demand for the nation’s currency.
For example, U.S. bond yields gauge the performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar.
Let’s look at one scenario: Treasury bond yields indicate a strong economy and boost currency demand. High yields attract foreign investors, increasing the currency's value. For example, U.S. bond yields reflect the strength of the U.S. stock market and the dollar. Bond yields and currency attractiveness increase when interest rates rise, leading to currency appreciation.
In commodity markets
Conceptually, monetary policy can affect commodity prices through at least four channels. But for an easy explanation purpose, the most relative will be its effect on investment and consumption.
Interest rates affect investment and consumption, driving current and future commodity consumption. A higher yield could lead to stronger currency, leading to expensive commodities. Expensive commodities might eventually lead to a negative price impact.
The bottom line
The 10-year Treasury bond yield is used to determine investor confidence in the markets. It moves to the inverse of the price of the 10-year Treasury note and is considered one of the safest.
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تنظمها هيئة الأوراق المالية والسلع
سنشري للاستشارات المالي ش.ذ.م.م
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يتضمن التداول في منتجات المشتقات باستخدام الرافعة المالية خارج البورصة، بما في ذلك العقود مقابل الفروقات وعقود الصرف الفوري للعملات الأجنبية، وينطوي على مخاطر خسارة كبيرة قد تفوق الودائع وربما لا يناسب جميع المستثمرين. وتُعد منتجات المشتقات المالية خارج البورصة / العقود مقابل الفروقات هي أدوات مالية معقدة لا تمنح أي مطالبة أو حق إلى الأداة المالية الأساسية. والتعاملات بهذه الأدوات خطرة جداً، ويتعين عليك التداول فقط برأس المال الذي يمكنك تحمّل خسارته. وقبل أن تقرر التداول في هذه المنتجات، يتعين عليك النظر في أهدافك الاستثمارية وتحمّلك للمخاطر ومستوى خبرتك. وتبعاً لذلك، يتعين عليك أن تتأكد من فهمك للمخاطر ذات الصلة وأن تطلب مشورة مستقلة من المتخصصين إن لزم الأمر.
سنشري للاستشارات والتحليل المالي ش.ذ.م.م (سنشري) هي شركة مرخصة حسب الأصول ومنظمة من قِبل هيئة الأوراق المالية والسلع في دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة (هيئة الأوراق المالية والسلع) بموجب الرخصة رقم 20200000028، 20200000081و301044 لمزاولة أنشطة وسيط التداول في الأسواق العالمية، ووسيط التداول للمشتقات المالية خارج البورصة والعملات في السوق الفورية، وخدمات التعريف والإحالة والاستشارات المالية والتحليل المالي، والترويج. كما أن سنشري هي شركة ذات مسؤولية محدودة تأسست بموجب قوانين دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة ومسجلة لدى دائرة التنمية الاقتصادية في دبي (رقم تسجيلها 768189) ويقع مكتبها المعتمد في 601، الطابق 6، المبنى 4، إعمار سكوير، داون تاون، دبي، الإمارات العربية المتحدة، ص.ب: 65777.
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